17th June
A year later, no lessons learnt
Article talks about the conditions at Uttrakhand one year after the tragedy that occurred at Kedarnath.
- locals continue to remain the government’s second priority. Rehabilitation of villagers is still incomplete. Locals continue to make trips to their tehsildars, patwaris, sub-divisional magistrates, and district magistrates for pending compensation issues, to appeal for the construction of safety walls and for the rebuilding of roads and bridges.
- blocked roads have been opened, some have been black-topped, some reconstructed. Broken bridges have been replaced with makeshift ones. Roads have been reconstructed, but by boring deeper into the mountains, already subject to constant erosion by the river flowing beside them.
- A biometric registration system has been introduced this year to keep track of the pilgrims, and the State Disaster Response Force has been deployed on the yatra routes.
- However, the meteorological equipment has not been upgraded since last year. Talks of establishing an early warning system began only recently.
What is perhaps lacking in Uttarakhand is an effective disaster management system. A combined effort needs to take place between the State Disaster Management department, the State Disaster Management Authority, the meteorological department, and other departments. If every agency continues to work towards disaster management in isolation, the death toll will only increase.
Last year on August 13, the Supreme Court issued an order in which it directed the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) to constitute an expert body to “assess whether the existing and ongoing/under-construction hydroelectric power projects have contributed to the environmental degradation and, if so, to what extent.” It also directed the MoEF and the State government to “not grant any further environmental clearance or forest clearance for any hydroelectric power project in the State of Uttarakhand, until further orders.”
The expert body, in its Chopra Committee Report, elucidated the adverse role played by the projects in worsening the disaster.
A Himalayan policy drafted by Shekhar Pathak, a historian from Uttarakhand, and Hemant Dhyani of Ganga Ahvaan, a movement for the conservation of the Ganga and the Himalayas, states that after witnessing calamities in the Uttarakhand region for almost four decades, it was clear that “all these calamities failed in fully sensitising the system, administrators, and policy makers.”
The draft of the policy, which is a part of the Chopra Committee Report submitted to the Supreme Court, suggests
- establishing micro hydel projects, solar projects,
- stopping illegal mining,
- strengthening Van Panchayats, and
- demarcating cultural eco-sensitive zones for the conservation of biodiversity, among other recommendations.
The tasks in Uttarakhand
Dams, barrages and tunnels had impacted the course of rivers. Scores of them are in place in Uttarakhand alone. Some of them come with dams, but a majority are run-of-the-river projects requiring tunnelling through mountains. Debris from some of the displaced structures caused havoc downstream. However, it is equally true that the devastation would have been even more widespread had the Tehri reservoir failed to contain a significant volume of the deluge. So, the critical issue may not be dams per se, but overall hydel management.
Another lesson that remains to be learnt relates to the role of deforestation in making the region vulnerable to landslips and erosion. The absence of vegetation in the higher reaches aids landslips.
The task of reconstruction is nowhere near completion. Post-disaster, the State government set up a Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority to look into planning and development of the region. But in a holistic sense, precious little has been done to address the larger issues.
What needs to be done?
- A full-fledged Ministry as part of the Union government needs to be created to chart out and implement — in tandem with the State government — an action plan to set priorities for the region and preserve its ecology, while striking the right balance between its development needs and the vulnerability factors.
- A suitable mechanism, bringing together scientific expertise, dispassionate efficiency and administrative acumen, should be put in place to ensure proper and transparent utilisation under diligent oversight of the aid package that was made available.
Author talks about Prime Ministerial form of government.
A centralised structure of governance in which the leader has a strong control over decision-making would work best for India. A government headed by a dynamic, efficient and strong Prime Minister who can wield enormous powers by virtue of his personality, is described as a prime ministerial form of government.
Comparison with some other countries
In Germany, the powerful position of the Chancellor diminishes the role of the cabinet. The prime ministerial government in Germany is called the “Chancellor Democracy.” The Chancellor answers to Parliament and the ministers answer to him/her. But the Indian Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, to the people, and to his/her own party. The American president acts with the help of advisors, who sometimes overshadow the authority of the ministers.
At the heart of the Cabinet
Article 74(1) of our Constitution expressly states that the Prime Minister shall be “at the head” of the Council of Ministers and should aid and advise the President in the exercise of his functions.
The Prime Minister is at the heart of the Cabinet. Under the Westminster model of government, policy formulation and decisions on important matters are the responsibilities of the ministers. Despite the constitutional provisions of the Westminster model of cabinet government in India, the Prime Minister is the undisputed chief of the executive.
The office of the Prime Minister first originated in England. William Harcourt calls him “luna inter stellas minores” or “A moon among lesser stars.” Dr. Ambedkar had once said that if any functionary under the Indian Constitution was to be compared with the U.S. President, he is the Prime Minister and not the President.
The twin objectives of the Prime Minster appears to be to grant greater autonomy to the States and have a centralised structure for governing the Union.
In S.R. Bommai vs Union of India (1994), the Supreme Court ruled that the States have an independent constitutional existence and have as important a role to play in the political, social, educational and cultural life of the people as the Union does.
Reaching out to Bhutan
- Bhutan-India relations are governed by a friendship treaty that was renegotiated only in 2007, freeing Thimphu’s external relations from New Delhi, but still subjecting the Himalayan nation’s security needs to supervision.
- India has also provided financial assistance to its tiny neighbour’s five-year development plans since 1961, last year committing Rs.4,500 crore for the period up to 2018.
- The gamut of ties between the two countries covers cooperation and investment in infrastructure development, health, education and most significantly, hydropower projects.
Meanwhile, Bhutan itself has undergone radical changes, transitioning from a benevolent monarchy to a democracy. A new generation of Bhutanese have come of age under the new system. The country held its second democratic election last year, one in which, for the first time, resentment against New Delhi’s “meddling” through the cutting of fuel subsidies, among other actions, was openly expressed. Supporters of the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa, which lost the election after its first term, believed that New Delhi was cut up with the 2012 meeting between Wen Jiabao, the then Chinese premier and Jigmey Thinley, then Prime Minister of Bhutan.
At that meeting, which was held in Rio de Janeiro on the sidelines of a multilateral forum, the Chinese side was quoted as saying that Beijing was “willing to complete border demarcation with Bhutan at an early date.” Both sides have held many rounds of talks on the issue, without coming close to a resolution. Chinese territorial claims in western Bhutan are close to the Siliguri Corridor, also known as Chicken’s Neck, the narrow strip of land that connects West Bengal to northeastern India.
China is also interested in establishing formal ties with Thimphu, where it does not yet have a diplomatic mission despite a nearly 500-km shared border with Bhutan.
All this is no doubt causing concern in New Delhi, and is clearly part of the reason Prime Minister Modi chose to visit the country quickly. During the visit, the two sides reiterated an important clause in the 2007 Treaty — neither side will allow its territory to be used for “purposes inimical” to the other. India cannot stop a sovereign country from establishing diplomatic relations with other countries. What it can do though is to protect and nurture its relations with Bhutan in a way that the friendship grows and does not falter.
No strategic contest with India: China
Article talks about India China relations with Bhutan as a factor
China on Monday rejected suggestions of any competition with India for strategic space in the neighbourhood, affirming that it was both “happy” with Mr. Modi’s visit and “full of confidence” over the future of relations with India.
While China and Bhutan do not have formal diplomatic relations, the two countries have engaged in talks to settle their disputed border, holding more than 19 rounds of negotiations.
While India has had close historical relations with Bhutan, that Beijing and Thimphu were willing to take ties to a higher level was made evident in June 2012 when former Bhutan Prime Minister Jigme Thinley, who ended his term in July last year, held a first-ever meeting with then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, on the sidelines of a United Nations conference in Brazil.
Mr. Thinley then told Mr. Wen that his government “wishes to forge formal diplomatic ties with China as soon as possible” — a declaration that generated much interest in India at the time — while the Chinese leader said Beijing was willing to settle the boundary dispute “at an early date” and step up cooperation in all fields.
Some analysts in Beijing have held the view that India has since then sought to block Bhutan from establishing diplomatic ties with China.
Subsidy issue
A commentary in the Communist Party-run tabloid Global Times last year accused India of influencing domestic elections in Bhutan and treating the country “like a protectorate” by withdrawing petroleum subsidies.
The move was seen by some in Thimphu also as a response to its warming ties with Beijing, though New Delhi rejected those suggestions.
Since the change in government in Thimphu last year, talk of moves to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing has cooled.
China has been keen to quickly establish contact with the Modi government. Mr. Modi’s electoral victory has been seen by many analysts in Beijing and by Chinese industry representatives as providing a platform to deepen economic ties, with Gujarat emerging as a popular destination for Chinese investment during Mr. Modi’s tenure as Chief Minister. Mr. Modi has visited China four times.
18th June
Turning to Iran
Key reasons for the situation in Iraq
1. In 2003 the invaders abolished Iraq’s public and civic institutions, in the deluded belief that all Iraqi officials were fanatical Saddam Hussein followers. Almost immediately, extreme Sunni and Shia leaders started a savage civil war, dividing Iraqi society and enabling al-Qaeda to establish a powerful presence where it previously had none.
2. Matters were then exacerbated by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s sectarianism; he sacked 700,000 Sunnis from the military and banned substantial numbers of Sunnis from civilian public-service posts.
3. Widespread corruption and brutality on the part of government militias have made things even worse; some Mosul residents say that ISIL has brought renewed stability and an end to fighting, bomb explosions, and looting.
4. Moreover, two allies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been funding and possibly arming ISIL with a view to overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Riyadh and Doha might also seek to remove Mr. al Maliki’s Shia-dominated government.
5. Above all, the British and American lies about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction in 2003 now mean military intervention will not be tolerated by the public in either country.
So summarising the reasons:
1. abolishing of public and civil institutions --> enabled al-Qaeda to establish its presence
2. sectarian move of sacking Sunnis from military and civil public service post --> these Sunnis sacked were recruited by al-Qaeda
3. government's corruption and brutality ---> conducive conditions for al-Qaeda
4. Saudi Arabia and Qatar funding and arming to remove Shia-dominated government
War in Iraq hurts every home in India
Picking up select few points:
- Indians ought to be paying close attention, for this war will hit homes from Kupwara to Kanyakumari. Fifty-seven per cent of India’s crude oil imports come from states directly threatened by the looming chaos in West Asia — Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq itself. Long wars in the region could disrupt supplies and raise prices, undermining India’s hopes of an economic revival.
- Last year President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. was no longer interested in “being the world’s policeman.” In a speech delivered earlier this summer, he expanded on that vision, saying that military force would only be used to protect American lives against direct threats. The economic rationale behind Mr. Obama’s thinking is simple: by 2025, the shale oil and gas revolution in the U.S. will have long freed it of dependence on imported hydrocarbons.
- The major lesson to be drawn from Mr. Bush’s wars, though, is that the capability to wage war isn’t nearly enough. In a thoughtful essay on the U.S.’ war in Iraq, scholar Toby Dodge has noted that the neoconservatives grouped around Mr. Bush believed that, left to themselves, people would make rational choices, paving the way for a free market economy. Mr. Rumsfeld successfully argued that a long-term presence in Afghanistan would be “unnatural,” even “counterproductive”; in the neoconservative imagination, there was no room for the reconstruction of polities and political systems.
- For India to succeed in protecting its vital energy interests in western Asia, it will need the focussed application of all elements of its national power: military, yes, but also diplomatic and economic. Hard as it may be, New Delhi will have to find ways to work with China and Japan, the two other Asian states powered by West Asian oil. Powers across the region will have to find cooperative mechanisms to finance future interventions that may become necessary.
Answering to law, not to Caesar
Issue: The recent Intelligence Bureau report on the “Concerted efforts of select foreign funded NGOs to ‘take down’ Indian development projects” casts serious aspersions on some of our best NGOs and distinguished citizens. The report also alleges that these NGOs would have a negative impact on GDP growth by 2-3 per cent by stalling, through agitation, development projects such as nuclear power plants, uranium mines, coal-fired power plants, GMOs, projects by POSCO and Vedanta, hydel projects, and “extractive industries” in the north-east.
Authors concern is dysfunctional role of the intelligence services.
In the decades after Independence, successive Prime Ministers turned the Intelligence Bureau into a kind of private detective service for the government, charging it with surveilling everything from political opponents to routine economic activity.
The Intelligence Bureau — often with little domain competence — weighs in on everything from the appointment of judges to the credentials of business houses.
The Intelligence Bureau is charged with the defence of the republic, not with the defence of the policies and interests of whoever is in office.
The importance of dissent in democracy
Some points for NGO issue:
- In a democracy, non-governmental organisations provide a platform to civil society to dissent in an informed and reasoned manner. They provide a mechanism for the ruled to keep a check on the rulers.
- There are of course NGOs that engage in illegal or objectionable activities using Indian and/or foreign funds, much like how 34 per cent of newly elected MPs in Parliament have criminal cases against them. Just as the majority of MPs do not have cases against them, a large proportion of our NGOs operate transparently and legally.
- The power that NGOs wield has increased concurrently with the increased demand for real and operational democracy. If it were not for our NGOs, we would not have the system of obligatory declaration of assets, now required by all those aspiring to be MPs. We would also not have the the Right to Information Act or the Protection of Plant Varieties and Farmers’ Rights Act.
- What is wrong in receiving funds from well-meaning individuals or bona fide organisations abroad who want to help a worthwhile cause in India? Doesn’t the Indian government, for example, help worthwhile causes in Afghanistan?
- Let us look at how specious and ridiculous the arguments in the IB report are. There is massive opposition to nuclear power plants around the world, and many countries such as Japan and Germany have decided to abrogate them in a time-bound fashion. In our own country, many highly distinguished individuals such as a former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, a former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, and several former Secretaries to the Government of India, who are knowledgeable in the area, have opposed further investment in nuclear energy. None of them has any connection with Greenpeace, nor do they have any vested interest. They have provided valid reasons for their views.
- Let us take another example — coal mining for coal-fired thermal power plants. Such mining requires destroying India’s forest wealth and the livelihood of tribals. What about our national commitment since Independence to have over 30 per cent of our area under forest cover? Why should we invest so heavily in nuclear, thermal or large hydel power plants, none of which will be environment or people-friendly, when we have far better alternatives staring us in our face: solar power, wind power, micro and mini hydel, biomass and biogas, lot of which can be produced and used locally? Isn’t it strange that our country does not have even one single institute totally devoted to research on solar power? We want to spend enormous amounts of money to buy nuclear reactors from the U.S. but we do not want to learn lessons on solar power from Germany. What is then wrong with NGOs in our country such as Greenpeace for taking a courageous stand against nuclear, coal-fired thermal or large hydel power plants?
- The ignorance of the Bureau with regard to the Bt-cotton story in India, and of the problems with GM crops, is appalling. For example, Bt-cotton has totally failed in rain-fed areas that account for nearly two-thirds of cotton-growing area in the country. Even if, as the IB claims, there is a negative impact on GDP because of opposition to certain projects, so what? Our experience of high growth rate in some recent years has by no means been satisfactory, for it has barely touched the bottom 80 per cent of our population and has vastly increased the economic gap between the top 20 and bottom 80 per cent.
Mass surveillance ‘is permitted by law’ in the U.K.
Mass surveillance of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, and even Google searches, is permissible in the U.K. because these are “external communications,” according to the government’s most senior security official.
The claims have been brought in the wake of revelations from the U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden about mass surveillance under the Tempora programme by the U.K. monitoring agency GCHQ and the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA). Under the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA), the interception of any domestic communications requires an individual warrant — a legal safeguard that previously was thought to extend to all users.
Under section 8(1) of RIPA, internal communications between British residents within the U.K. may only be monitored pursuant to a specific warrant. These specific warrants should only be granted where there is some reason to suspect the person in question of unlawful activity. “External communications,” however, may be monitored indiscriminately under a general warrant according to section 8(4).
On the road to safety
Another article on Road safety. Roads are unsafe because of
1. shortcomings in road and traffic engineering,
2. old and non-standard codes of traffic control devices,
3. poor driver training and assessment,
4. outdated legislations and
5. a poor enforcement system.
Though the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways is the nodal ministry for road safety management, the issue is a multipronged and shared responsibility of many ministries — Home, Health and Family Welfare, Urban Development, Law and Justice, Heavy Industries, Human Resource Development, Environment, Petroleum, Defence, Planning and Finance, among others.
The number of recorded road deaths in India — 1,40,000 annually — is the highest in the world. In addition, an estimated 2.2 million people are seriously injured on roads.
In order to diagnose the problems leading to unsafe roads, the most important is scientific investigation of road accidents. This is our weakest area today — that we are unable to know the causes and consequences of road accidents. Policemen who investigate crashes are neither professionally trained, nor do they possess the basic tools to collect evidence, and analyse and reconstruct the events leading to the crash. This is evident from the fact that the media has to invite a host of persons as experts to present their views on high-profile accidents rather than depending on probes by the police.
It is crucial to introduce the science of traffic engineering to each and every road authority.
The process of change should be based upon indigenous research and verified practices that are applicable to the needs of the country. This demands a paradigm shift from the ‘dependence upon consultancies’ approach.
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways should initiate the process of road safety management by first building the capacity of the department. Ministry should deliberate on creating the government’s own expertise and knowledge base in all areas of
- legislation,
- transport planning,
- traffic engineering,
- traffic enforcement,
- driver training and education,
- post-crash management,
- as well as integration of road transport with rail, inland waterways (as has been announced), maritime shipping and air traffic.
These sub-departments with their expertise would be able support all States and Union Territories towards building their capacity as well.
19th June
India must find its voice in West Asia
Authors talks about the lack of understanding in the Indian establishment of the value that lies in ties with West Asia; ties that have been slipping in the past few years.
The region is important because of following reasons
1. dependence on the region for oil — about 70 per cent of all oil imports,
2. bulk of trade that is conducted through this region via the Suez Canal,
3. Nearly seven million Indians now live and work in the Gulf and WANA(West Asia and North Africa), sending home about half of the $65 billion India earns in global remittances.
Some of the issues related with this region:
1. everyday in the Gulf, two Indians commit suicide on an average. They work gruelling hours for unregulated agencies, being shipped around, as the construction workers were from the United Arab Emirates to Iraq, without India speaking up for them.
2. India’s voice doesn’t carry the weight it once did in the region.
Fading diplomatic stance
For the past decade, especially after what are called the 9/11 wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), India has chosen to give up its own say on matters of the Middle East to the big powers. On matters of conflict, Iraq, Syria, Libya, the government has chosen to piggyback on Russia and China’s stand at the United Nations, or to be intimidated by the U.S. and Europe into adopting a hands-off policy there.
India has restricted dialogue on the issues of Libya, Syria and Iraq and others to its conversations with the two most powerful ‘influencers’ in the region: the U.S. and Russia. However, given that it is Arab-Persian rivalries that are playing out more than Cold War ones, it is imperative that the new government finds ways of initiating dialogue on West Asian conflicts with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), mainly Saudi Arabia and with Iran as well.
For India, the disinterest has been enhanced by the growing conflicts in the region, from Libya to Syria and Iraq. Every time a country in the region erupts, India seems less willing to engage with it. As a result, the only bilateral visit by Dr. Manmohan Singh in his tenure during UPA-II was to Saudi Arabia in 2010. In his schedule of engagements for the remainder of this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made no mention of the region either.
Once India shows its intent to engage, officials will find that their voice is heard very quickly. As any Indian traveller to the region will tell you, India occupies a very high place in these countries, dating back from the civilisational ties it shared with Egypt, Syria and Mesopotamia (Iraq).
Gyaan
West Asia
Western Asia is a newer term for the area that encompasses the Middle East and the Near East.
Curbing hate crimes
Article talks about the rising number of hate crimes being facilitated by social media ( case in focus is that of a Muslim techie being murdered in Pune only because of his religion). Points can be used for negatives of social media:
2. a politician from the ruling party at the Centre should not be appointed Governor of a State run by another party.
- Social media provides miscreants open forums to promote their bigoted ideologies and access to a potential audience of millions, including impressionable youth.
- It appears easy to instigate a riot through social media or run a hate campaign. In last year’s Muzaffarnagar riots, morphed images and videos were circulated to inflame communal tensions.
Democratic credentials on test
Issue: Removal of governors appointed by the previous government on regime change.
- Until 2010, the predominant notion was that since a Governor holds office at the pleasure of the President, subject to a five-year term, she could be removed at any time and for no reason at the Centre’s instance. However, in B.P. Singhal vs. Union of India (2010), the Supreme Court ruled that a Governor’s removal is justiciable and there should be good, valid and compelling reasons for such a removal. The power should not be exercised arbitrarily, capriciously or unreasonably.
- The view that a new regime can remove a Governor on the ground that she is out of sync with the policies and ideology of the party in power at the Centre or that the ruling party has lost confidence in her, has been rejected by the Supreme Court.
- For too long, the Governor's office has been used to rehabilitate politicians defeated in elections or as a reward for retired bureaucrats and intelligence officials.
- The Sarkaria Commission on Centre-State relations suggested :
2. a politician from the ruling party at the Centre should not be appointed Governor of a State run by another party.
Scientists warn of tourism threat to Antarctica
Antarctic scientists warned on Wednesday that a surge in tourists visiting the frozen continent was threatening its fragile environment and called for better protection.
Most of Antarctica is covered in ice, with less than one per cent permanently ice-free. Only 1.5 per cent of the ice-free area belongs to Antarctic Specially Protected Areas under the Antarctic Treaty System, yet ice-free land is where the majority of biodiversity occurs.
U.S. push to tag India as ‘emerging economy’ aimed at market access
The crisis at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks in Geneva has deepened with the United States demanding that India and China be categorised as ‘emerging’ rather than as ‘developing economies’.
USA's argument:
1. U.S. insists that economies such as India and Indonesia with high rates of growth can no longer be categorised as developing countries
2. U.S. has also tabled a study in Geneva, produced by its allies Pakistan and Canada, that claims food subsidies in India and China exceed those in the U.S. and the EU
India's Argument:
1. India’s stand is that going by per capita income, it is actually the world’s largest Least Developed Country where about 600 million live at less than $2 a day
2. India has countered the study with data to show that the U.S. farm subsidies to its corporate sector are to the tune of $20,000 to $30,000 per capita per year against India’s mere $200. Besides, India’s subsidies go to subsistence farmers
Implications for India:
1. will lower the agriculture subsidy caps applicable to India from 10 per cent to 5 per cent.
2. will also require India to grant market access to the U.S.
Targeting a chink in TB bacteria’s armour
A novel approach adopted by a team of researchers based in Bangalore has opened a window of opportunities to design new antimicrobials that could potentially be used to kill the tuberculosis-causing bacteria.
The team has targeted a class of proteins called HU, which is a histone-like protein that binds to DNA and compacts it. (The DNA is a long thread and has to be compacted and condensed into a ball-like structure.) By binding and compacting the DNA, the HU protein is able to regulate the DNA expression.
Considering the predominant role played by the gene encoding for HU protein, knocking the gene would in effect kill the TB causing bacterium — Mycobacterium tuberculosis .
Indus basin will get hotter by 4 degree C by the end of the century
By the turn of the century, global warming could radically alter the climatic anatomy of one of the world's most populated river basins — the Indus — thereby impacting millions of livelihoods, says a new study.
The 1.1 million sq. km basin, shared by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, is projected to warm “significantly and progressively”, with average temperatures set to increase by around 4 degrees C by 2080, says a paper published recently in the journal Climate Dynamics .
- Warmer winters in the plains,
- quicker snow melt in the basin's northern highlands (comprising parts of the Hindu Kush, Karakorum, and Himalayas) and
- more frequent flash floods at the foothills
are predicted over the next seven decades
El Nino’s complex link to the monsoon
El Ninos come in two ‘flavours' : Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific
In 1997, the eastern Pacific had become exceptionally warm, thereby limiting the atmospheric circulation changes that adversely affected the monsoon. It was when the sea surface temperature anomalies were highest in the central Pacific that an El Nino had drought-producing effects over India. Central Pacific El Ninos had appeared in 2002 as well as in 2004 and 2009, with all three years ending in drought
Besides, what happens in the Indian Ocean also shapes the course of the monsoon.
Toshio Yamagata’s research group at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) has studied the ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ (IOD) and its effect on rains over India. During a ‘positive IOD’, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean off Sumatra in Indonesia becomes colder than normal while the western tropical part of the ocean near the African coast becomes unusually warm. Such an event has been found to be beneficial for the monsoon. On the other hand, a ‘negative IOD,’ when temperatures at either end of the Indian Ocean swing in the opposite direction, hampers the monsoon.
An IOD can counter or worsen an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon, according to a paper by K. Ashok, currently at IITM in Pune, along with Dr. Yamagata that was published inGeophysical Research Letters in 2001.
A positive IOD had facilitated normal or excess rainfall over India in 1983, 1994 and 1997 despite an El Nino in those years. But during years such as 1992, a negative IOD and El Nino had cooperatively produced deficit rainfall.
The latest prediction from the JAMSTEC group suggests a ‘very high’ probability of a negative IOD turning up this year.
During the positive phase of the ‘Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO),’ there is enhanced cloud formation and rainfall in western part of the equatorial ocean near the African coast while such activity is suppressed near Sumatra.
This phase is associated with good rains over India. Its negative phase, when cloud formation and rainfall flares up near Indonesia, retards rains over India.
While EQUINOO and IOD go in step during strong positive IOD events, such as in 1994 and 1997, they do not always do so, according to Prof. Gadgil.
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