Daily News Compilation (HINDU) for 21st April

Deterrence debates and defence

Article on BMD and nuclear deterrence.

India's deterrence dilemmas arise because:

1. Nuclear deterrence as a concept has not developed in South Asia

2. Presence of non-state actors in the region

For example consider Pakistan. There are chances that nuclear aggression can arise because of:

• non state actors gaining access to nuclear weapons
• rogue elements in the Pakistani armed forces engaging in unauthorised nuclear activities
• accidental launch

India’s failure to respond to Pakistani aggression has political implications as it is highly criticised for not responding to Pakistan adequately.

This perceived failure of deterrence, despite the possession of nuclear weapons by India, could lead to greater instability in India-Pakistan bilateral relations should there be another crisis with Pakistan, especially if New Delhi has a right-wing government in power.

Any government would think twice before withdrawing the NFU(no first use) policy beacuse:

• NFU makes India look as a responsible nuclear power
• It helps India integrate into global nuclear order

3.  concerns about the robustness of the Indian nuclear deterrent for a variety of doctrinal and material reasons

• experts have questioned the use of “massive retaliation” in the Indian doctrine which is not a credible enough threat to deter Pakistani conventional or sub-conventional aggression. 
• command and control (C&C) structures are not yet sophisticated enough.
• credibility of India’s declared nuclear capability. For instance, India claimed after the 1998 tests that its thermonuclear test was a success. However, this claim has been authoritatively challenged making the country’s official claims concerning nuclear weapons look weaker. 

What needs to be done:

1. strategic review of the country’s nuclear doctrine to make it more credible
2. introducing enhanced strategic depth, political commitment and a sense of purpose into India’s ongoing BMD programme.

Demonstrating that one can defend oneself strengthens deterrence:

• If Pakistan believes that it can take out New Delhi and with it a considerable amount of the latter’s C&C systems and political leadership in a first strike, such a belief will weaken the deterrence stability in the region. On the other hand, if the Indian political leadership and its nuclear C&C can be made reasonably invulnerable from a decapitation strike, then deterrence stability increases considerably. In this context, a limited BMD system increases deterrence by denial
• The deterrence effect of BMD is not only applicable between rational state actors but also when non-state (rational or irrational) actors target state actors. For instance, if Pakistan-based non-state actors or rogue elements from the Pakistani armed forces target India with nuclear weapons, New Delhi — considering that such an attack is most likely to be very limited — will be able to properly comprehend and analyse the situation before contemplating an appropriate response. This is only possible if the political decision-making mechanisms and nuclear C&C in New Delhi survive such an attack.
• More importantly, a limited BMD can also deter a state with revisionist intentions that would want to carry out a bolt-from-the-blue-strike. In other words, if generating dissuasion in the mind of the aggressor is central to nuclear deterrence, a limited BMD shield could potentially achieve that in the South Asian context.
• BMD developments in the country unlikely to face any normative opposition from the international community such as the United States and its NATO allies, they may indeed be willing to collaborate with India on its BMD programme.

Why a limited BMD?

•  a limited BMD can reinforce India’s NFU posture as well as make it more credible. Since the country is only going in for a limited BMD it does not want to secure itself completely and then engage in a first strike. 
• continuation of the country’s de-mated and de-alerted nuclear posture.

The myth of the wasted vote

Article summary:

“Wasted vote”  : The electorate is repeatedly being told that to vote for a party that might not get a majority or might get too few seats is to “waste” a vote. 

But this defeats the purpose of right to vote in a democracy as a vote is an opinion, a stamp of approval, a tick of faith given to a particular party or candidate or political philosophy that an individual believes in strongly. What a vote most emphatically is not is an endorsement of what a perceived majority might or might not want, or what it thinks is good for the country. 

Other notable points:

• One of the most common traits of a multiparty democracy is the fact that often a single party does not get a simple majority to govern. It has to combine itself with other like-minded (often very unlike-minded) groupings to stitch together a coalition in order to govern.
• for the last 10 years we have had a single coalition governing at the centre without a break: an example of a stable government, but a government that the population is sick of and is looking to change. Clearly, stability is not some wonderful synonym for a perfect central government, or the single most desirable feature the country is seeking today. What the population also wants is a clean, responsive and accountable government. One of the ways to try and make this happen is to vote in a new government that promises this chimera — not just vote for stability or a simple majority or a cynical numbers game.
• some of the worst failures of the outgoing government have stemmed as much from its own mistakes as from an absolutely irresponsible Opposition. So, this election in many ways is as much about voting in a new, strong and responsible opposition as it is about voting in a new government.

The Delhi dilemma

SC: It is for the Lt. Governor to decide on dissolution of Delhi assembly

• Supreme Court has wisely refrained from giving any direction to the constitutional authority to follow a particular course of action
• Court has instead clarified the position concerning the power of the President to rescind or modify his February 16, 2014 Proclamation imposing President’s Rule in Delhi. There is “no fetter or impediment” to the President exercising his power to revoke or vary his earlier order.
• Supreme Court, in S.R. Bommai vs. Union of India , had ruled that the legislature could be dissolved only after the Proclamation imposing President’s Rule receives the approval of both Houses of Parliament. In the case of Delhi, both Houses have approved the Proclamation, but the Assembly continues to remain suspended. 
• the President’s order is subject to judicial review, if it is found to be mala fide , or based on extraneous or irrelevant considerations, it is difficult to see any scope for a direction to a constitutional authority to dissolve — or refrain from dissolving — the legislature. President’s Rule in Delhi cannot go on beyond a year, unless extended with Parliament's approval.

AAP alleges that the Assembly has been kept under suspended animation with the mala fide motive of delaying fresh elections

Government has defended its decision not to dissolve the House. The government’s position is that it would not be expedient or in the public interest to hold another election so soon after the last Assembly election held in December 2013.

To heat eco-city, Turkey looks to ‘green gold’

Pistachios are already a key ingredient in Turkish baklava, but the country may now have found a new way to exploit the nuts known as “green gold” — by using their shells to heat a new eco-city.

Officials are currently examining plans to build the country’s first ecological city with buildings both private and public heated by burning pistachio shells.

Why the rush on Lokpal appointments, asks BJP

“Allow regulated vehicular movement in Kaziranga”

The Assam Government has pleaded before the National Green Tribunal that regulated movement of vehicles be allowed in the Kaziranga National Park instead of complete restriction, saying the stretch is the lifeline for Northeastern States.

“Stopping all types of vehicular movement will have cascading effect on the environment and protection of wildlife as it will lead to a huge pile of thousands of vehicles on the road running along the boundary of the National Park,” the Assam Government said in an application submitted before a bench headed by NGT chairperson Justice Swatanter Kumar.

The tribunal, on March 20, had directed that no traffic would be permissible on the roads used by animals as corridors for going from one sector to another along the Kaziranga National Park for five hours daily.

The Assam Government said in its plea that vehicles should also be allowed to move in a convoy led by an escort vehicle as is done routinely and restriction on movement of overloaded vehicles would be monitored in coordination with the traffic police.

It has also said the National Park authority would deploy ‘animal corridor wardens’ at designated locations frequented by animals during the monsoon season

‘GDP likely to average 6.5 % over next five years’

There is only a 50 per cent chance India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will average even 6.5 per cent over the next five fiscals, according to a Crisil Research report, and that too, is predicated on a decisive mandate in the ongoing general elections. The report, titled ‘Of growth and missed opportunity’, notes that election outcomes don’t impact the economy beyond improving sentiment. What matters are the policies that follow. A decisive mandate will create an environment for speedy resolution of policy bottlenecks, hasten reforms and crank up investment efficiency.

India’s Incremental Capital Output Ratio or ICOR, which measures investment efficiency, has worsened to almost 8 in the last two fiscals from 4.4 during the high growth period of 2003-04 to 2010-11. Higher the ICOR, lower the efficiency of investment. So the task before the new government is laid out clearly — the focus has to be on improving the efficiency of the economy by debottlenecking it.

However, if there is no clear mandate at the battle of ballot, growth will likely remain in the 5 per cent rut.

Reality check on the economy

March data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry show a deceleration in exports by 3.15 per cent, the second consecutive monthly fall. For the whole year (2013-14), exports were $312.35 billion, short of the target of $325 billion. Imports fell by a little over 8 per cent to nearly $451 billion. The trade deficit (imports minus exports) was at a three-year low at a little over $138.59 billion.

A few points about the trade data: 

(1) Narrowing of the trade deficit is not by itself a welcome development. That depends on how the contraction has occurred. Ideally, it should be on the basis of an export revival and not just import contraction. Gold and silver imports have declined sharply due to stringent government restrictions. Oil imports were higher. A reduction in non-oil imports is not always welcome news. On the contrary, it indicates economic slowdown.

(2) Exports declining for the second month in a row are a worrisome development. Until two months ago, there was a revival of sorts, aided in part by a depreciating rupee and economic recovery in the U.S. The rupee has shown signs of appreciating recently. Currencies of some competing countries have been depreciating alongside this. India’s weak manufacturing growth is another factor as also uncertainty at the global level.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) : For February, it declined by 1.9 per cent against a rise of 0.8 per cent in the previous month. Manufacturing, forming 75 per cent of the index, declined by 3.7 per cent. Mining has recovered somewhat while electricity posted a robust growth. Consumer durables segment continued to slide. For the 11 months till February, industrial output fell by 0.1 per cent compared with 0.6 per cent growth last year.

WPI rose to 5.7 per cent. It was at a nine-month low of 4.68 per cent in February. CPI inflation was also higher than expected at 8.31 per cent up from 8.03 per cent in February. Higher food inflation — costlier vegetables, fruits milk and milk products — are behind the rise in both the indices. Amid weak growth, the RBI would find it difficult to hold back rates.

Udupi’s brinjal to go places

The famed ‘Mattu Gulla’, a special variety of brinjal, grown in and around Mattu village in Udupi district in Karnataka, is likely to be made available not just in Mumbai and other Indian cities but also the Gulf countries by October this year, if everything goes according to the plans of the growers.

This brinjal, which enjoys the Geographical Indication (GI) tag, is sought after because of its unique taste. Nearly 200 farmers grow this brinjal on about 150 acres of land in Mattu and its surrounding hamlets such as Kopla, Kaipunjal, Uliyargoli and Pangala.